El Niño is present, with both oceanic and atmospheric indicators consistent with El Niño conditions. Given recent model updates and warming in June, NOAA may increase the likelihood of a very strong El Niño developing this year in their outlook, which currently stands at 63%.

This weather risk update examines the warming Pacific Ocean temperatures, the atmospheric response to this warming, the latest ECMWF and NMME ENSO forecasts, and finally near-term conditions, which remain supportive of further warming in the Niño 3.4 region and El Niño-like weather patterns over the next month.

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