In this episode of Marex Market Pulse, Elizabeth Murray-Lyon, Head of Cotton Broking at Marex, joins us to talk through what’s been driving the recent move in cotton and how the market is reacting. 

With prices rallying sharply in recent months, the discussion looks at the mix of supply pressures, shifting demand and broader macro influences now shaping the market, and why cotton is starting to behave less like a traditional soft commodity. 

 

Cotton market outlook and price drivers

Cotton prices have risen significantly, up around 25 percent since the start of the US/Iran conflict, after spending a long time weighed down by bearish positioning. 

Going into the move, the market was comfortable with the idea of ample supply.

Production had been strong across regions like Brazil, China wasn’t importing as much, and a lot of money was sitting in short positions. Once the narrative started to shift, that positioning unwound quickly, which helped accelerate the rally in futures. 

At the same time, there have been some interesting knock-on effects from energy markets. As input costs rise, synthetic fibres like polyester have become more expensive, which has made cotton look more attractive again. That’s started to shift demand behaviour, particularly from mills. 

On top of that, the weather backdrop is starting to creep back into focus. There’s growing attention on the potential for El Niño and what that could mean for key growing regions. It’s still uncertain, but the timing and how it develops could end up mattering quite a lot for this year’s crop, and that’s adding another layer for the market to think about. 

Marex cotton and agriculture offering

Alongside the market discussion, the episode reflects the importance of combining specialist cotton expertise with broader agricultural market access. 

Marex’s cotton desk brings together dedicated brokers across London and New York with clients are supported across: 

• • futures and options execution 
  • market commentary and weekly supply and demand analysis 
  • weather and crop reporting, supported by in-house meteorology 
  • positioning insights and risk premia analysis 

• This sits within a wider agriculture platform that covers key markets including grains, coffee, sugar and other soft commodities. The strength of that broader offering is the ability to connect insights across markets and support clients who are managing exposure beyond a single commodity.  

Marex combines this sector expertise with global execution, clearing and liquidity access, giving clients a more integrated way of navigating increasingly complex agricultural markets.