Marex recently hosted a Post-UK Budget Reaction Webinar, bringing together leading experts to cut through the noise and explain what the Budget means for markets, the economy and politics.
With the unprecedented OBR leak, speculation around tax rises and growing talk of leadership challenges, the session provided clarity on the issues shaping the UK outlook.
Key points:
- Future tax measures are heavily back-loaded, with major changes scheduled for 2027–2030.
- Near-term spending pressures remain unresolved, raising risks around private-sector weakness and rising unemployment.
- Forecast assumptions may be overly optimistic, leaving room for volatility.
Inflation and monetary policy
Disinflation is expected to continue into summer as base effects, energy prices and food costs ease. This supports the case for the Bank of England rate cuts, but:
- Clarity on inflation may not emerge until mid-year.
- Curve positioning and issuance management were seen as constructive, yet growth concerns continue to weigh on sterling and sentiment.
Political landscape and leadership risks
Politics remains a key driver. The panel noted:
- A Labour leadership challenge in 2026 looks increasingly likely, driven by party dynamics rather than Budget specifics.
- Market turbulence could follow, but the Bank of England is expected to focus on fundamentals, not political noise.
Summary
While the Budget offered short-term relief, structural challenges persist across fiscal policy, growth and political stability. Investors should watch:
- Issuance trends
- Inflation dynamics
- Leadership uncertainty
- Broader macro conditions
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