Tom Alterson
Futures Clearing Sales
After 25 years in this business—across market cycles, regulatory regimes, and clearing models—I’ve seen what truly matters when volatility rises, capital tightens, and clients need certainty. As we look toward 2026, three forces are converging that will reshape how clearing relationships are evaluated and where sophisticated clients ultimately choose to partner.
1. Clearing Models Will Diverge Further Under Capital Constraints
By 2026, regulatory capital will increasingly determine which firms can provide clearing capacity consistently. For some clearers, balance-sheet usage, internal capital allocation, and liquidity constraints directly shape how their clearing businesses operate—affecting responsiveness during volatility and the ability to support client portfolios through market cycles. As portfolios grow more complex, these constraints are becoming more visible in day-to-day clearing relationships.
Marex operates with a business model purpose-built for clearing. The non-bank regulatory framework under which we operate aligns capital requirements directly with client margins, rather than broader balance-sheet and leverage constraints. Decision-making remains focused on supporting trading strategies rather than managing competing priorities, allowing clearing relationships to stay centered on each client’s portfolio and risk profile across market cycles.
This distinction is practical, not philosophical. As clients evaluate clearing relationships heading into 2026, predictability, continuity, and capital alignment are becoming as important as price or scale. Clearing models will continue to diverge, and clients will favor partners whose capital remains committed when volatility rises and certainty matters most.
2. AI Is Rewiring Commodities—and Clearing Must Keep Up
AI-driven demand is reshaping commodities markets at a pace not seen in decades. Energy, power, metals, logistics, and infrastructure are becoming more interconnected, more volatile, and more correlated. Risk models designed for simpler market structures are being tested as physical-financial linkages deepen and capital flows accelerate across the commodities complex.
Why Commodity Expertise Matters More Than Ever
In this environment, clearing firms that deeply understand commodities—seasonality, spread behavior, physical delivery dynamics, and structural volatility—are best positioned to support clients as exposures grow.
Capital Treatment Differs Across Clearing Models
At the same time, depending upon the regulatory regime governing a clearing firm’s business model, commodity risk can carry very different capital implications. For some institutions, commodities futures are treated as particularly capital intensive, influencing how risk is assessed, priced, and supported as exposures scale.
Marex’s Structural Advantage
Marex approaches commodities from a position of specialization rather than constraint. Commodities are not a peripheral business line; they are foundational. That focus translates into risk frameworks and operational decisions that recognize real-world market behavior rather than reacting defensively to it. Importantly, it also allows Marex to support commodity exposure without structural disincentives that can otherwise shape clearing appetite.
As AI accelerates investment across the physical-financial complex, clients will increasingly value clearing partners who are comfortable with commodity risk, structurally aligned to support it, and able to provide continuity as markets evolve.
3. Risk-Aligned Margining Is Arriving—and Practical Application Matters
The next major evolution in clearing is risk-aligned margining: recognizing how positions actually interact across asset classes rather than treating them as isolated exposures. Industry initiatives such as CME/FICC cross-margining are an important step forward, but they are formalizing practices that have already been operating in live markets for years.
At Marex, this approach is not a future state. Our systems, risk models, and financing framework were built to recognize cross-product interaction, deliver margin offsets, and support real-time risk transparency well before formal industry programs emerged. Because our infrastructure was designed around portfolio-level risk rather than retrofitted to it, we can deliver these benefits without the internal friction or regulatory conundrums that can slow adoption at other FCMs.
As client portfolios increasingly span rates, equities, commodities, ETFs, and macro strategies, margin efficiency and financing flexibility become strategic—not incremental—advantages. Clients will gravitate toward clearers that can deliver risk-aligned outcomes immediately, consistently, and at scale. In that environment, readiness matters, and Marex has already been operating where the market is headed.
Bottom Line
Clearing decisions are becoming more strategic. As regulatory capital constraints, AI-driven commodities growth, and risk-aligned margining reshape the landscape, clients will gravitate toward partners whose business models, infrastructure, and risk culture are aligned with how markets are evolving—not how they once operated.
Marex is built for that future.
To discuss how Marex is positioned to support clearing strategies for 2026 and beyond, please contact our team.
